Let’s assume that the magic moment is near, where HTML5 has enough penetration to be useful for more than just tech demos. I don’t know when that date will come, but I think it’s sooner than some Flash developers think (and a little later than some HTML5 advocates hope, but that’s a different story).

Everything you need could be deployed in a single HTML file. No need to load CSS externally, and all graphics could be Canvas or SVG. In the worst case, if you absolutely must have images, they could be Base-64 encoded in the document and loaded with data URIs. I see no problem developing all the components and the calculation engine in JavaScript. Performance in JS engines is leaping forward in big ways. They’ve got to be faster than AS2 now (which was good enough for Xcelsius), and they will probably surpass AS3 (I think a couple do in certain situations already) because Adobe doesn’t seem to be speeding up their own VM in response… yet (maybe I’m wrong, but no one has said much about AS3 speed in a long time, so I’m going to assume Adobe has been doing other stuff instead).

An app that does as much as Xcelsius would be passed around far and wide by HTML5 advocates, especially if it offered a stunning visual design. It may not reach all enterprises immediately, but it could get a good start with excited early adopters just for being a great example of a hot new technology. For that reason alone, I say the company who made this hypothetical Xcelsius clone could easily get acquired by Google/Apple/Microsoft or someone else with big pockets looking to pick up some smart people or a good product to continue developing. Oh man, maybe I should get started on that one. 😉

For all the same reasons, games could be done in HTML5 too. There are many new game frameworks starting to pop up, and I expect that momentum to continue. As a game developer, I’m a little worried about that because HTML5/JS is a lot easier to manipulate. Not because I’m against people seeing my source code and copying it in their own games, but more because it will become a lot easier to rip out advertising, remove external links back to the author’s website (or to a paying sponsor’s site), modify scores and other data (cheating), and stuff like that. Perhaps good minimizers and obfuscators can help, though. I’ll be watching the evolution of HTML5 games very closely. I want to see if they can find ways to continue with the monetization options currently available to Flash developers or if they need to change business models.

I’m not an HTML5 convert, by the way, in case anyone might think that as a result of these posts talking so highly of the next-gen web. I still know many capabilities in Flash Player that aren’t available in browsers, and they probably won’t be until long after HTML5 is widely deployed, if ever. By that time, Flash will probably have new capabilities that continue to push innovation on the web. That’s what plugins do best, and I can never dislike Flash (or its successor plugin, should one replace it in the hearts and minds of developers) because otherwise open standards would be even worse off.

It has been a long time! HTML 5 is the perfect solution for many organizations that have long used Flash as an army swiss knife for web advertising, banner ads, audio/video.

In the enterprise software market, my organization works heavily in dashboards with Xcelsius, Flex, and AIR. The ability to compile a single SWF that can be deployed to a web page, re-purposed as a RIA, and then also live inside of a PDF, and now to Android is something that I don’t see HTML5 ever accomplishing.

This area of RIAs, Games, and specialized web applications are not given any attention by larger media outlets and blogs. So the question is if this area is so insignificant compared to the future of web video and the Adobe vs Apple circus that no one cares about these important use cases for Flash?

As someone who once worked in the enterprise space and now has a game development practice, you have experienced two completely different worlds that use the same Flash technology with great success. Can you see yourself re-building something like Xcelsius and your games using HTML5 and Java?

Why the hell would a Flash developer use HTML5?

HTML5 has the same problems that all so-called “standards” have. For business reasons, it will NEVER be implemented consistently across browsers and platforms. JavaScript programming is trial and error to see if what works in Browser A also works in Browser B. It’s a freaking nightmare. I’d rather be a plumber than have to write different code for 7 different browsers.

Professional Flashers understand that Flash is not just about cool tricks and animations. Flash is THE ONLY WAY to achieve cross-browser and cross-platform consistency.

Flashers – this is the argument you should be making for Flash. It’s a slam-dunk. Proprietary is good in the case of Flash. Don’t be bullied by the standards zealots.

But I don’t think that open standards ever will be able to keep up with the cutting edge. There is just no chance that HTML will evolve to have the capabilities has today within the next decade. Probably HTML5 will not be accessible enough to use other than as an alternative for some applications for many years to come, and it’s expected to reach recommendation status 2022.

I agree that the foundation of the web should be open. A big part of the Internet will always be about simply presenting information accompanied by some graphics, and the technology for that will not need to be updated that often.

When it comes to things like games and rich applications you many times want the latest technology, and it will always be offered by platforms such as Flash, Silverlight or Unity3D, since they will have a faster development progress.

My hope for the future is a diversity of tools and formats available, and I very much doubt it will turn out any other way.